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Literature & Fiction

Rating: 4.2 / 5.0 (124 votes)

Released: 2012-09-27

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The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail but Some Don't by Nate Silver

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"Nate Silvercff0478#three9;s The sign and the Noise is The Soul of a new gadget for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of waft


Nate Silver built an cutting edge machine for predicting baseball performance, anticipated the 2008 election inside a hair’s breadth, and was a countrywide sensation as a blogger—all by the point he used to be thirty. the new York occasions now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, the place Silver is without doubt one of the country’s so much influential political forecasters.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the sector of prediction, investigating how we will be able to distinguish a real sign from a universe of noisy data. most predictions fail, frequently at great price to society, because so much folks have a terrible figuring out of probskill and uncertainty. each mavens and laypeople mistake extra assured predictions for extra accurate ones. but overconfidentificationence is frequently the cause of failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. that is the “prediction paradox”: The extra humility now we have about our skill to make predictions, the extra successful we will be able to be in making plans for the longer term.

consistent with his own goal to are looking for truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock marketplace, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how those forecasters suppose and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just fortunate? What styles have they unraveled? And are their forecasts truly right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And every so often, it's not such a lot how good a prediction is in an absolute experience that issues however how good it is relative to the contest. In other circumstances, prediction continues to be an overly rudimentary—and perilous—technology.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters have a tendency to have an outstanding command of probskill, they usually have a tendency to be both humble and toughworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, they usually realize a thousand little main points that lead them closer to the reality. because of their appreciation of probskill, they are able to distinguish the sign from the noise.

With everything from the well being of the global financial system to our skill to fight terrorism established at the high quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
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Editoral evaluate

Amazon best possible e-books of the Month, September 2012: other people love statistics. Statistics, however, do not all the time love them again. The sign and the Noise, Nate Silvercff0478#three9;s brilliant and sublime tour of the up to date technology-diminish-art of forecasting, presentations what occurs when big data meets human nature. Baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, economics, and polling: In all of these areas, Silver unearths predictions long past bad way to biases, vested interests, and overconfidentificationence. but he additionally presentations the place refined forecasters have gotten it right (and on occasion been omitted to boot). In todaycff0478#three9;s metrics-saturated global, Silvercff0478#three9;s guide is a well timed and readable reminder that statistics are only as good as the people who wield them. --Darryl Campbell

e-book small print

writer: Nate Silverwriter: Penguin Press HC, ..Binding: HardcoverLanguage: EnglishPages: fiveforty four

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