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Politics & Social Sciences

Rating: 3.8 / 5.0 (12 votes)

Released: 2012-09-27

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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't by Nate Silver

Description

"Nate Silvercff0478#three9;s The sign and the Noise is The Soul of a brand new gadget for the twenty first century."
—Rachel Maddow, writer of waft


Nate Silver built an cutting edge system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election inside a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the point he used to be thirty. the brand new York occasions now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, the place Silver is without doubt one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the arena of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy information. maximum predictions fail, frequently at nice cost to society, because most folks have a terrible understanding of probability and uncertainty. each professionals and laypeople mistake more assured predictions for more accurate ones. however overconfidentityence is frequently the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can recover too. that is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have approximately our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

in keeping with his own intention to are seeking for reality from information, Silver visits probably the most successful forecasters in a spread of spaces, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the inventory marketplace, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters suppose and what bonds they percentage. What lies in the back of their success? Are they excellent—or simply fortunate? What styles have they unraveled? And are their forecasts truly right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And once in a while, it is not so much how excellent a prediction is in an absolute experience that issues however how excellent it's relative to the contest. In other instances, prediction remains to be an excessively rudimentary—and perilous—science.

Silver observes that probably the most accurate forecasters generally tend to have an excellent command of probability, and they have a tendency to be the two humble and complicatedworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they understand a thousand little details that lead them nearer to the truth. because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With the whole lot from the health of the global economic system to our ability to combat terrorism established on the high quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an very important read.
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Editorial overview

Amazon easiest books of the Month, September 2012: other folks love facts. Statistics, on the other hand, don't at all times love them again. The sign and the Noise, Nate Silvercff0478#three9;s brilliant and sublime tour of the brand new science-lower-artwork of forecasting, presentations what overview while large information meets human nature. Baseball, weather forecasting, eartworkhquake prediction, economics, and polling: In all of those spaces, Silver finds predictions gone unhealthy way to biases, vested pursuits, and overconfidentityence. however he also presentations the place sophisticated forecasters have gotten it right (and from time to time been unnoticed as well). In todaycff0478#three9;s metrics-saturated world, Silvercff0478#three9;s e book is a timely and readable reminder that facts are handiest as excellent as the people who wield them. --Darryl Campbell

book important points

author: Nate Silverwriter: Penguin Press HC, ..Binding: HardcoverLanguage: EnglishPages: fiveforty four

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